CSIRO-Dara61/ACS Apr 2019 "Blockchain 2030 - A Look at the Future of Blockchain in Australia"

			Appendix A: Strategic foresight methodology

Strategic foresight is a well established discipline which helps to inform strategic decision-
making by exploring plausible futures. 

It first emerged after World War II, with an early focus on technology forecasting. 

Thereafter, the strategic foresight field was given a boost by the formation of Royal Dutch 
Shell's scenario planning team during the 1970s.178 

Since then, the scenario planning approach has emerged into a field of knowledge with 
numerous professional guides and books published its methods and practice.

More recently, strategic foresight has made its way onto the world stage. 

OECD Secretary General Angel Gurria, in his 2016 opening remarks to the Government 
Foresight Community in Paris, explicitly noted the importance of strategic foresight for 
exploring the unexpected 179 

As the creative destruction of the Fourth Industrial Revolution creates conditions of turbulence, 
unpredictable uncertainty, novelty and ambiguity (TUNA conditions), strategic foresight is 
coming even further to the fore 180

Two specific techniques under the umbrella of strategic foresight have been employed in this 
report- horizon scanning and scenario planning (see Figure 32).

Data61 used these techniques in combination to craft and communicate a narrative about the 
future of blockchain adoption in Australia, and to derive implications informing strategic
decision-making.

The horizon scan involved a rigorous and systematic process of identifying trends relevant to
Australian blockchain adoption, which could impact future decision-making.

Trends can be understood as impactful changes that are likely to shape and influence the
future and were classified as either social, geopolitical, economic, technological or 
environmental.

Trends data were sourced from international and national statistics, the Data61 trends 
database, literature, internal workshops and stakeholder consultations, including interviews 
and the ACS Blockchain Industry Survey.

The scenario planning process followed from and built on the results of the horizon scan. 

It involved the evidence-based and logical imagining and explication of plausible future 
scenarios. 

In this report, eight plausible scenarios have been developed for Australian blockchain 
adoption in 2030. 

Each scenario was crafted with reference to plausible outcomes for labour, industries and 
exports.

The results from both the horizon scanning and scenario-planning exercises were thereafter 
rigorously informed and validated by a series of 15 interviews and a workshop, undertaken 
with key stakeholders and experts in the Australian blockchain space. 

The interviews were 30 minutes each, with five standardised questions asked of each 
participant.

FIGURE 32. CSIRO'S STRATEGIC FORESIGHT APPROACH

							1
		UNDERSTAND CORE ISSUES, QUESTIONS & SCOPE OF PROJECT
			PROJECT INCEPTION & BACKGROUND STUDY

							2
					CONDUCT HORIZON SCAN
			HORIZON SCAN & INVESTIGATIVE INTERVIEWS

			A		B		C		D			E
GEOPOLITICAL    SOCIAL      ECONOMIC 	ENVIRONMENTAL TECHNOLOGICAL

							3
				IDENTIFY SALIENT PATTERNS OF CHANGE
			SCREEN, CLASSIFY, VALIDATE & PRIORITISE TRENDS
				DEVELOP DRAFT SCENARIOS

							4
				TEST & REFINE TRENDS AND SCENARIOS
				    SCENARIOS VALIDATION WORKSHOP

							5
				CRAFT & COMMUNICATE FINAL REPORT
			      INFORM FUTURE STRATEGIC & POLICY DECISIONS






Blockchain" applications are appearing in many industries 

This may be the reason that in May 2018 the European Commission [EC] has announced a new 
Challenge for 2019 called "Blockchains for Social Good" 

The Prize for this challenge is 5 winners of Euro 1,000,000 each

As at 04 Jan 2019 1,000,000 Euros are worth Au$ 1,625,233.92

The timetable to submit an application is

	1	16 May 2018 - contest opens
	2	02 Apr 2019 - deadline for registration of interest [NOT MANDATORY]
	3 	03 Sep 2019 - deadline to submit applications

On 09 Apr 2019 the CSIRO-Data61/Australian Computer Society [ACS] Published
"Blockchain 2030 - A Look at the Future of Blockcgain in Australia" 

				INDEX OF CONTENTS

		CONTENTS									PAGE		

A	Executive summary									 4

B	Introduction: Blockchain beyond Bitcoin	 				 8
	
C	Overview of blockchain 								12
	C1	Why now? The evolution of social and economic trust	15
	C2	Regulating blockchains 							16

D	Current profile of Australian blockchain industry and skills 	17
	D1	Blockchain activity in Australia 						18
	D2	Industry profile of blockchain activity					19
	D3	The workforce of blockchain professionals			21

E	Future trends shaping blockchain in Australia 				24
	E1	Technological and environmental trends 				25
	E2	Economic trends 									30
	E3	Geopolitical trends 								32
	E4	Social trends 										34

F	Future scenarios for blockchain application 				37
	F1	Axes of critical impact and uncertainty 				39
	F2	Plausible blockchain adoption scenarios 				41
		
G	Strategic implications and actions 						50
	G1	Australia's competitive advantage 					51
	G2	The transition period 								53

H	Conclusion 											55

Aa	Appendix A:
	Strategic foresight methodology 						58

Ab	Appendix B:
	Regulatory measures for blockchain 						60

Ac	Appendix C:
	Approach used in labour and industry analyses 			62

Ad	Appendix D:
	High-profile use cases of blockchain in Australia 			63

Rb4	References - 185 										64
 


	A	Index "Blockchain 2030" Committee Meetings - Section Reviews

	H	2018 EC-Blockchains for Social Good [BSG] H2020

		a	Rules of Contest - On-line

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